Strahinja Pavlovic is a man of contradiction.

So far in his Milan career, his performances have been polarizing among fans and even personally in my evaluation of him as a player. He looks like a blue-collar no-nonsense defender, yet more often than not he tends to bomb forward and carry the ball into attack, putting himself in scoring positions while leaving space behind. Somewhat of an attacking defender.

Physical traits

Pavlovic is a behemoth of a football player, being listed at 1.94 m, which is 10 cm taller than the average player in Serie A and the tallest for an outfield Milan player. Furthermore, that height comes with long legs that, in theory, should help him poke out & win balls from opponents, and cover a ton of ground with long strides.

And while the consistency of the ball-winning aspect of that is questionable at times, the speed is not up for debate, with Pavlovic recording one of the fastest top speeds among defenders once he gets going. Unfortunately, he does not get to use this tool of his very often, due to his short-distance burst being quite average. This means that he needs a decent amount of space to run into in order to reach his impressive top speed. Keep that in mind.

Aggression and positioning

During his time at Milan over the past two seasons, the one thing that has consistently followed Pavlovic is his tendency and eagerness to go forward, whether that is to tackle out of possession or get involved in attack in possession. He himself mentioned that fact recently in an exclusive interview with Milan Vibes:

“Yes, it’s a trait I’ve always had. I always want to help in attack and I want to do everything I can to contribute defensively as well, but I’m lucky that these are also things the coach likes, because without him I wouldn’t be able to do anything. Playing in this system helps me, because when we play with a back four I can’t make those runs, it becomes much more difficult for me.”

Now, that is an interesting dichotomy: a defender who likes to attack. Milan’s set-up this season has taken account for that trait of his, lining up in a 3–5–2 / 4–4–2 hybrid (will refer to it as a 3–5–2 for simplicity’s sake) most of the time. Pavlovic’s been deployed as the LCB in this formation which allows him to go up the pitch while the 2 other center-backs cover for him.

This has led to mixed results defensively: at times the gap left behind being too big to fill for the ability of the current Milan defenders, and at other times managing to recover by using his speed like he did versus Juventus recently, matching Chico Conceicao’s run at the 73:34 mark, where he showed some great 1v1 defending.

Again, Pavlovic does have the physical tools available to him to be a top-tier defender, but in practice those tools provide more impact on the attacking end. His body control and proprioception are lacking, which leads to inconsistent results when going at an opponent to tackle or fight for the ball. Additionally, his aggression makes it so if that tackle or duel fails, there’s a ton of space behind him for the opponent to abuse. As per ScoutLab, Pavlovic wins 35.7% of his defensive ground duels (31st percentile) at a pretty low volume of 1.28 ground duels per90 (57th percentile), which supports the idea of him not having great control of his body yet.

In possession

In the build-up phase, Pavlovic contributes through his long progressive carries forward, being able to run past multiple opponents once he picks up momentum. For center-backs, he’s 98th percentile in progressive carries, 90th percentile in fields gained by carries, and 97th percentile in carries to final third (via ScoutLab).

Passing-wise, he’s not the most impressive on the eye nor numbers-wise — the real value is in the carries. Additionally, Pavlovic makes many runs into the box whether that be in transition or in settled play. This leads to him being 85th percentile in shots for a center-back and being involved in a lot of chances, to a point where many have joked about him playing striker. And while a joke, Pavlovic really does get himself into good positions. His npXG per shot is 0.14, which for a center-back is 83rd percentile. If we compare the same value to forwards, it would be 51st percentile, which is basically what the median forward in Serie A is reaching. That’s more than forwards like Santiago Castro, Francesco Pio Esposito, Gianluca Scamacca, and more (with the obvious caveat of his shot volume being way lower). Not too shabby for a defender.

Becoming an attacking defender

Modern football has been experimenting with defenders a ton recently. Just looking at Manchester City’s left-backs: they have gone from the days of Cancelo who was right footed and was inverting up high, to Nathan Ake who was much closer to a center-back, was an excellent wide defender, and allowed for John Stones to push up into midfield, to Josko Gvardiol who while a center-back by trade, was technical and skilled enough to join up in attacks and make bombarding runs into the box to produce goals, and lastly with this season they have played with Nico O’Reilly who is a natural midfielder.

Josko Gvardiol

I talk about Gvardiol because how he was deployed can easily provide a prototype / proof of concept for what a fully realized Pavlovic can look in the attacking phase. Running the channels, shooting on goal, providing cut-backs, underlapping, and occasionally doing hold-up play are all things Pavlovic is equipped and has already shown he can do to an extent.

In matchweek 10 of Serie A, Milan won 1–0 against Roma with the winner scored by Pavlovic being assisted by Leao at the end of his run.

In the goal, Pavlovic initiated his run alongside the other attackers as Saelemaekers picked up the ball in transition, running the hardest among those involved. What’s most impressive here is how Pavlovic adjusted himself mid-run to get into the defender’s blindside, which is very striker-esque. This led to the defender losing track of him as he ball-watched, resulting in Leao finding the gap and the open Pavlovic scoring. This innate instinct and movement ability is just a glance at how good Pavlovic can be at getting at the end of chances and providing box threat. Other clear examples of this can be seen in his runs against Verona match-week 33.

Anyways, so we have the blueprint from Gvardiol, we know Pavlovic CAN do it, but the question remains:

Can something like this work specifically in Serie A?

The answer to that question is Denzel Dumfries.

Dumfries, especially under Inzaghi, was a relentlessly running attacking defenders who provided intensity, strength, and was great aerially. These are all traits that Pavlovic does not lack be that physically or mentally.

So how does this all relate to Pavlovic?

Planning around the aggressive carrying and positioning

Furthermore, the defensive weaknesses at center-back can be actually less pronounced when playing the same way he does at fullback. He would actually be allowed to be aggressive with his tackling and dueling and be punished to a lesser degree.

Not only he would have proper cover behind him, but the areas he would be dueling in would be higher up the pitch, which even if he loses the first duel, he will have time and space to use his speed to catch back up. Whereas if he steps up, let’s say right in front of the box, and loses that 50/50, then the opposing attacker has a free lane to go through and shoot. The same thing happening in the half-way line wouldn’t lead to high quality chances for the opposing team. Additionally, he would be facing wingers that he would be able to physically overpower, likely leading to a higher duel winning %.

Lack of elite passing

What about the rest of the team?

The concern

To summarize

Pavlovic’s talent for making runs to the box and the threat he provides inside it is a trait that can and should probably be maximized. After all, goals are valuable no matter where they are coming from. Additionally, his strengths of ball carrying, overall speed, and okay crossing all lead to him projecting as an impactful fullback. Moreover, the defensive and positioning weaknesses he has would be hidden at fullback, even potentially becoming strengths, while the same could be said with Bartesaghi, who if shifted at center-back would be also able to contribute to build up better with his progressive passing.

Realistically, this is all more of a thought experiment rather than what will actually happen due to many factors, but still an interesting proposition to think about. Goals are goals, no matter what position they come from. It doesn’t matter who is your top scorer as long as your team is consistently scoring more than the opponent. Pavlovic’s talent for scoring should be maximized no matter where he plays, since that aspect of him can make him a real difference-maker.